Presidential and Mayoralty races likely photo finishes

WHOEVER WINS Panama’s presidential election in May will have had most of the country going to the polls to vote for someone else. 

The same applies to the race for the mayor of Panama with a three way tie predicted.

With Panama’s first past the post system, if there was an election today, Jose Domingo Arias, CD, would edge his way into the presidential palace with just 32% of the votes, and Juan Carlos Navarro, with 31%, would be standing at the door. Panameñista candidate Juan Carlos Varela, would be at the foot of the steps, with 25% according to an Ipsos poll conducted for La Estrella and Telemetro.

Allowing for the plus or minus 2.62 margin of error, either of the two leading candidates could be the winner, after a photo finish, assuming there is no tampering with the ballots, but Varela would still be left behind.
The poll was conducted for the first time with simulated ballot forms which, says Ipsos gives more reliable results.
The figures are a boost for the Navarro campaign with a gain of six percentage points since a mid-January Ipsos poll.
Genaro Lopez, presidential candidate of the Broad Front for Democracy (FAD), won 2 %.
PRD leader Rogelio Paredes, said the tie between his candidate and Arias r reflects the result of the formula Navarro- Solis.
The naming of independent former Electoral Tribunal judge, Gerrardo Solis as running mate for Navarro, was expected to boost the PRD ratings. The recent naming of Marta Linares de Martinelli, wife of President Ricardo Martinelli as running mate for Arias has not, so far, ncreased the Arias standings.
Paredes also believes that intensified street tours promoting the ' Plan de Todos ' (A Plan for All) has given them strength.
The PRD has also been making use of political veterans Ernesto Balladares , Samuel Lewis Navarro and Laurentide Cortizo which has increased support says Parades.
Jorge Ivan Arrocha of the Varela campaign came out with a political chestnut saying that the true survey is May 4 . The naming of Elizabeth St Malo as vice presidential candidate is fueling the campaign and Varela prefers to look at the surveys the Panamenista’s have done, showing that he has no less than 30% of the country behind him
MAYORALTY RACE
While the presidential results reflect a narrowness never seen before says La Estrella, but the mayoralty race is even a more interesting phenomenon . There is also a technical draw.
The PRD opposition candidate José Luis Fabrega , tops the intention of voters with 30% followed by Jose Blandon, Panameñista and the current mayor, Roxana Mendez, Democratic Change , both with 28% .
That converts into a three-way tie. Exciting times for political junkies.

The poll was conducted January 29 to February 1 with 1,398 respondents based on a margin of error of ± 2. 62, % and was performed using the simulation mechanism of a election ballot, which provides more confidence in the results. People showed their preferences secretly and without anyone asking question says Ipsos.