Panama among 14 countries that can stabilize virus transmission
Panama is among 14 countries that in the coming days or weeks can stabilize the number of new infections that occur from a COVID-19 case (the Rt.) in the next days or weeks -depending on compliance with quarantine measures says a report from Imperial College, London
The document took into account the available data in 42 countries of the world with active transmission.
From the report, it appears that Panama this week could reach between 1 or less than 1 in the average transmission number (Rt), along with 13 other countries.
The Ministry of Health reported on Monday, April 13 that the Rt was at 1.5 and they hoped that a more stable pattern would be achieved in the next few days. On Tuesday it had dropped to 1.4.
Imperial College also estimates that the number of deaths reported this week is relatively small across the 14 countries.
Jean-Paul Carrera, epidemiologist and virologist at the Gorgas Commemorative Institute for Health Studies, clarified that the predictions of the Rt and number of deaths may change as the population complies with quarantine or not.
have published the number of cases and deaths that have occurred.
A key measure
One of the measures that have become relevant to know the course of the virus in is the Rt, the effective reproductive number, which allows establishing the magnitude of the epidemic and its transmission among the population. This number is also used to estimate what might be the best control strategies and assess whether they can have an effect on the epidemic.
The Ministry of Health (Minsa) has shown the Rt that the virus has in the country on three occasions, The first was on April 3, when the measurement marked 1.8, that is, that an infected person transmitted the virus to 1.8 more people. The second time they revealed the data was on April 13, when the Rt presented was 1.5, and the third time, on Tuesday when they reported an Rt of 1.4.
The difference in those 11 days (4 decimal places) is not considerable, but it is important to decrease the number of cases. The ultimate goal is for that number to hit 1 or less than 1.
