How Severe will the 2025 Dry Season be and How is Panama Preparing to Face it?

As the country enters the final stretch of 2024, weather authorities continue to closely monitor climate developments.

Panama City: After a rainy season that hit the country with the passage of several tropical waves and a hostile storm triggered by tropical storm Rafael, which caused damage to roads and highways; leaving in its wake people isolated and fatalities in hard-to-reach areas.  This, combined with floods and river overflows, evacuations, impacts on the agricultural sector, the management of water resources and even the planning of daily rescue activities, means that Panama is finally in a transition phase to the dry season (which is also known locally as windy season), looking ahead to 2025.  As the country approaches the final stretch of 2024, meteorological authorities continue to closely monitor climatic developments, but what does the country have in store for the coming summer and how are authorities preparing to confront the lack of rain. 

According to the Climate Forecast Bulletin for this December from the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama (IMHPA), the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, is in a neutral phase, meaning that there is no influence of this phenomenon on climate patterns.  Instead, most dynamical models estimate that until the first quarter of 2025 ENSO could be oscillating slightly below the ENSO cold phase threshold (SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region < – 0.5°C).  However, as it is a possible very short-term cold phase, it does not meet the criteria to be called a La Niña phenomenon. The last weekly value, for the month of November 2024, of the Niño 3.4 index was – 0.1°C and the value of the Niño 1+2 index was – 0.8°C, indicating that ENSO remains in a neutral phase. IMHPA maintains constant monitoring of the evolution and development of the ENSO event. 

Marilyn Ramírez Ferrari, National Director of Rural Engineering and Irrigation of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MIDA), indicated that, following the 2025 drought plan, in January they will be working on drilling wells in provinces such as Coclé, Veraguas, Herrera, Los Santos and Chepo in Eastern Panama. Drilling equipment pictured above. Ramírez explained that drilling is done on demand and based on the needs of both small and medium-sized producers.  Watering holes are also included in the drought plan, although at this time there is nothing concrete, because MIDA is focusing more on wells.  As for rural roads, work is currently underway in Herrera, on a 28-kilometre stretch of road that runs from Parita to a community with difficult access, which will benefit 220 producers.  To date, a total of 30 producers from different provinces have submitted applications for well drilling. However, they are given the benefit of 25,000 dollars per province, provided they meet a series of established requirements. 

Requirements

• Be within the Public Servants’ Pension Savings and Capitalization System.
• Have more than 50 cattle or more than 50 hectares of land.