WHAT THE PAPERS SAY: Poll shock for Palin fans

Canadians who have lived in Panama for more than  five years become disenfranchised but American residents still have the right to vote in U.S. elections.

So for them, the Republicans among them, and judging by the mail box at Newsroom, these are exciting times as the race for choosing a candidate to oppose President Barack Obama  heats up.

Whoever gets to rule in the U.S. always concerns the rest of the world, so comment from abroad is always on the boil.

The First Post today has this to say:

With eight months to go before the Iowa caucus – the starting gun for the Republican presidential candidate's race for the 2012 election – a shock poll for the Des Moines Register has shown Tea Party activist Michele Bachmann in second place, just one per cent behind front-runner Mitt Romney.

The pair – who polled 23 and 22 per cent respectively – are way clear of the rest of the field, with former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain in third place with 10 per cent.

The survey of 400 Republican voters brought bad news for some of the big beasts in the running to challenge Obama next November. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich was on seven per cent, while Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who has been campaigning hard, was on six per cent. Dark horse candidate Jon Huntsman, until recently the US ambassador to China, props up the field with just two per cent.

The poll is great news for both Romney and Bachmann, who have made minimal efforts to date in the Hawkeye State. It is also a massive wake-up call for Sarah Palin, the populist 2008 vice-presidential candidate who many feel is being comprehensively out-campaigned by Bachman in the fight for the conservative right. (Neither Palin nor fellow big-hitter Rick Perry were included in the poll because they have yet to indicate whether they are running.)

"The surprise [in this poll] is how quickly Michele Bachmann is catching on," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report told the Des Moines Register. "To me, she's the one to watch, not Romney."

The concern for Bachman, 54, is that this surge in popularity will also bring with it heightened scrutiny of her somewhat questionable political record. Until now she has succeeded in energising the party base. Now that she is vying for the lead, the American general public will want to take a closer look at her.

During her five years in Congress, she opposed the Wall Street bailout bill and supported drilling in Alaska. She is a global warming sceptic, calling carbon dioxide "a natural byproduct of nature" which is beneficial to the earth. Bachmann has also led charges against the patriotism of President Barack Obama.

In the run-up to the 2008 presidential election, former Secretary of State Colin Powell cited her comments about Obama as being the reason why he had backed the Democratic candidate. On Fox News yesterday, usually a sympathetic audience for her, she was asked by Chris Wallace if she was "a flake".

Palin will herself look to reinvigorate her campaign this week when she attends the premiere in Iowa of The Undefeated, a documentary about her political career. If she wishes to add further chapters to it, Palin will be keenly aware that she must counter Bachmann's surge very soon.