Elections Around the World are Being Miscalculated

One of the world’s most profitable currency trades unraveled thanks to a twist in Mexico’s elections that few saw coming.  Claudia Sheinbaum became Mexico’s first female president.  A day later, investors in India started frantically dumping stocks, triggering a $386 billion wipeout when they realized they had badly miscalculated the scope of Narendra Modi’s election victory at 54% of the vote. Around the world, surprise results in some of the biggest developing countries are illustrating how much markets have riding on the politics of 2024—and the pitfalls of trusting opinion polls to predict the outcome. The Year of the Election as it’s being called, in which 40 countries are holding national votes, is already burning investors, providing an early warning as votes in the European Union and UK near—not to mention the looming global fallout from the US election in November.  You managed to pick the winner for the Panama 2024 election. Was that just luck?  Let’s look at the EU on Sunday June 9th, the UK on Thursday July 4th, and the US on Tuesday November 5.  Have you picked winners yet?  Who has got your vote and why? Let’s hear your points of view.