US President Joe Biden – Will I Stay or Will I Go?
Top Democrats are preparing for the campaign without Biden. Some said it was a matter of when—not if—the president bows out of the 2024 race as new data showed him losing in a landslide. Governors Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer have both reportedly ruled themselves out of being Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate, should she replace President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Reports have suggested Biden, who is self-isolating with COVID, could soon announce that he is dropping out of the presidential race. The president has faced mounting pressure to bow out following his debate debacle last month, which magnified concerns about his age and ability to beat former president Donald Trump. More than two dozen congressional Democrats have urged the president to step aside. Biden has repeatedly insisted he will not drop out and decisions about the future of his candidacy remain his alone. However we know that he will have to ask Jill, first.
The calls for Biden to end his reelection bid have hit a peak recently. Fears over Biden’s cognitive and physical ability for a second term in office continued during a recent NATO summit in Washington, D.C., where he mistakenly referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump” and introduced Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin.” Biden has dismissed all suggestions of his 2024 campaign ending, and has repeatedly insisted he is still the best candidate to beat Trump in November. But he has failed to silence the frequent continuing discussions about possible steps to have him removed as either the president or the Democrat’s 2024 nominee. However, unless Biden decides himself he will end his reelection campaign, it looks almost certain he will be the party’s candidate in November, with the likelihood of him being removed from office also doubtful.
Under the Constitution, a sitting president can be removed from office if they are impeached over allegations of serious misconduct or corruption, such as bribery or treason. Any article of impeachment must pass the House with a simple majority vote, and by a two-thirds majority in the Senate. There are currently no plans to impeach Biden. Under the 25th Amendment, a sitting president can also be removed from office if the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet notify Congress that they believe the president is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” However, it is also unlikely that Vice President Kamala Harris would take such a step to try to have Biden removed from office over concerns he cannot carry out his presidential duties. Harris, who would become the acting president in such a scenario, has frequently expressed her support for Biden to beat Trump in November. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also shot down any suggestions that Cabinet has been discussing invoking the 25th Amendment during a House committee hearing on July 9.
The suggestion that Biden might be forced out of becoming the Democrat’s 2024 nominee, despite overwhelmingly winning the primary, is also far-fetched. Democrats plan to formally confirm Biden as their 2024 nominee in a virtual roll call vote during the first week of August, just prior to the Democratic National Committee in Chicago. Biden won the Democratic primary after having no serious challenges, winning 3,896 of the 3,937 pledged delegates. These delegates are now pledged, though not legally tied, to nominate him as the party’s presidential candidate. A majority of 1,976 delegates are needed to win the party’s nomination. While DNC rules state that these delegates could choose to back another candidate, historical precedent suggests these delegates will not abandon Biden as their pledged candidate unless he drops out.
The party’s official rules state “delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” During his recent NATO news conference, Biden said the delegates are “free to do whatever they want” at the Democratic National Convention, including nominating a different candidate. However, Biden also mocked this suggestion, whispering into the microphone “it’s not going to happen.” Adam Peters, a 36-year-old Democratic delegate from Iowa who’s sticking with his pledge to support Biden, told reporters: “I didn’t take that to be like, ‘Oh, I’m letting the delegates decide someone else.’ “I think he was just insinuating that if folks are so concerned, we’ll see what happens on the floor—but at the end of the day he’s the nominee.” There are also no other prominent Democrat figures who could conceivably try to win over Biden’s delegates at the convention.
Harris, considered the best replacement for Biden as the party’s 2024 nominee, is still showing her support for Biden, as are other potential candidates such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Even if Biden were to drop out of the race, he could not force his delegates to support any other candidate. The best the president could do is endorsing someone else for the role. Essentially, Biden is currently on course to remain president and be the Democrat’s 2024 nominee in November, unless he chooses to step aside himself.
The White House reiterated Biden’s desire to stay in the race amid reports that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged the president to reconsider his reelection bid during private meetings with the President. Responding to the reports, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said: “The President told both leaders he is the nominee of the party, he plans to win, and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families.” That comes after reports that former president Barack Obama has conveyed his concerns about Biden’s candidacy to allies in recent days and Pelosi has privately told Biden that Democrats could lose the ability to win the House if he doesn’t step aside. Stay tuned.
