Bitcoins 4th Halving

The Bitcoin network completed its fourth “halving,” reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25.  The price of bitcoin has been volatile ahead of the event, and fell about 4% to trade around $64,100.  Mechanically, the halving itself shouldn’t affect the price of bitcoin in the short term, but many investors are expecting big gains in the months ahead, based on the cryptocurrency’s performance after previous halvings.  After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top. The event is a big test for mining companies, however.  “All else equal, the halving will cut industry revenues in half, triggering a wave of consolidation and business closures, while (hopefully) rationalizing the network hashrate and industry capex, which is ultimately good for the remaining operators,” JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith said in a recent note to investors.  Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network.  The larger a miner’s hash rate, the greater a revenue opportunity it has. Mining stocks have been volatile in the days leading up to the event.  Many are down by double digits for the year, after rallying between about 300% and 600% in 2023.  ‘Riot Platforms’ for instance, is down about 41% in 2024 but it surged 356% in 2023.  “The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs.  The halving would further differentiate the low cost, high-scale consolidating winners vs the rest of smaller miners which may be disadvantaged post-halving.”