Fitch maintains Panama rating but warns of social unrest

The risk rating agency Fitch has reaffirmed Panama’s sovereign rating at BBB- with a stable outlook, maintaining the country’s investment grade.

The agency based its decision on the country’s high per capita income, a record of strong macroeconomic performance with high growth rates and relatively low inflation.

However, Fitch warns that the country remains susceptible to the external environment due to its dependence on international financing.

Likewise, the agency maintains that the government’s revenue base is relatively narrow, coupled with an uneven track record of meeting fiscal consolidation goals.

In updating the sovereign rating, Fitch notes that the protests last July revealed discontent with social concerns, including poverty, inequality, and levels of corruption. This last point significantly offsets the points in favor of the country, said the rating agency.

“Social unrest may have fiscal implications beyond this year, as it could increase social spending pressures,” the agency says.

Regarding growth prospects, Fitch points to 9%, which exceeds the Government’s estimate of around 6%.

Growth, according to the firm, will stand at 4.5% in 2023, down from the previous projection of 5%. “Risks are increasingly on the downside as a mild recession is expected in the United States in mid-2023, in addition to an adverse global economic scenario,” the firm notes.

In its analysis, the agency considers that the inclusion of Panama in the gray list of the Financial Action Task Force has not had material negative economic effects, and hopes that it will continue to do so, although getting off the list remains a key legislative challenge and is an important component of the country’s politics.