Panama forecast to reach 200,000 virus cases by year end

Panama could register 200,000 COVID-19 cases  with 3,500 deaths  by year-end if the current out-of-control trend continues

The projection comes from the Institute of Health Measurement and Evaluation of the University of Washington, in the US and is echoed by the former representative of the World Health Organization and specialist in Public Health, Jorge Luis Prosperi, who is a member of the government’s considers that the system’s attention capacity, both for outpatient care and hospitalization and intensive care will overflow.

Prosperi stressed that the 51,408 confirmed cases until last Friday represent 1.2% of the national population. “These figures show that the epidemic in the country is out of control,” he said. On Saturday  the total of infections had reached 52,261.

Evaluated by region, the Ministry of Health statistics show that there are some provinces with a higher infection rate. than others. For example, Panama has 1.83% of its population infected; Panama Oeste follows, with 1.44%, and Darién, with 1.64%. .

For Prosperi, the increase in cases is directly related to citizen behavior, which persists in not complying with the indicated measures to prevent contagion. As a result, there are 1.203.93 cases accumulated per 100,000 inhabitants.

“It is clear that the death rate is directly related to the increase in the number of cases. But, although the case-fatality rate remains around 2%, we increase to 24.31 deaths for every 100,000 inhabitants [eighth place among the countries of the Americas], which is serious and forces us to thoroughly analyze the causes of the high number of deaths ”, he said.

For this, it recommended identifying and correcting, if any, the shortcomings in the treatment received by patients, from hotel-hospitals, hospital wards, and intensive care units, since at those points something negative could be happening, and the authorities are obliged to discover and resolve it.

“Despite this bleak picture, I still think we are still in time to curb the escalation of cases and deaths as long as we stay focused and each one does his part responsibly. The health sector must redouble its effort to reach 4,000 tests a day and join the organized community in the interventions, to detect, isolate, and track, “he concluded.

Among medical professionals on the front line there are differing positions on how to reduce infection rates.

The Panamanian Society of Internal Medicine has recommended a total and mandatory quarantine in the provinces of Panama, Panama West, and Chiriquí for at least 15 days.

Internal physicians are currently caring for the majority of hospitalized Covid-19 patients in wards The president of the union, Nuvia Batista, says  they do not agree with the Government’s decision to establish quarantine only Saturday and Sunday.

“We hope that the government will make the decisions that cannot be postponed to alleviate the crisis,” she said.

Domingo Moreno, coordinator of the National Medical Negotiating Commission (Comenenal), considers that more than a total quarantine, the action should be focused. and applied, but only in communities and townships where the greatest number of cases occur.

Health should be the priority, but he also recalled that there is an economic component that must be evaluated before adopting any measure of isolation or restriction on mobility.