(Some) Canadian expats could play crucial role in upcoming election

By Howard Williams, Ottawa

THE LONGEST official election campaign in Canadian history is gathering momentum 

The three main parties running neck and neck according to the latest opinion polls.

The opposition New Democrats (who have never formed a federal government) are in the lead, with the Liberals (led by Justin Trudeau, son of former prime minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau) running second with the governing Conservatives led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper in third spot.

But virtually of the polls show the race is too close to call with any one of the three main parties having the chance of returning more members of parliament than either of the others, but no party looks like winning a majority in the House of Commons.

With the race so close,  expat voters could play a crucial role in key ridings in the October 19 election, even though the number of expats eligible to vote this time has been slashed substantially. Until recently, any expat Canadian was eligible to vote by postal ballot for up to 15 years after leaving Canada; but this was slashed a few weeks ago to just five years (for comparison, British expats can still vote in national elections back home for up to 15 years while US expats maintain their right to vote for ever … although it should be pointed out that unlike Canadian and British expats, American citizens still have to file annual tax returns back home and are liable in some cases to pay tax even if they are taxable in their new “home” country).

The new majority Conservative government in Britain has promised to extend the right of expats to vote for life, an idea once considered by Canada but later rejected.. In both countries the fear of many expats is that the right to vote might be accompanied by the introduction of the American style tax rules.

Both Canada and the United Kingdom have recently voted in legislation for fixed-term parliaments, but in both cases (as Canada has already done) that law can be circumvented if the prime minister of the day deems he (or she) no longer has the confidence of parliament, in other words has lost or is about to lose a confidence motion in the lower house (the House of Commons in both countries).

Norrnally in Canada, elections are called with just 36 days’ notice; but this year the government decide there should be a 78-day election period, making it the longest official election campaign period in Canadian history. Critics say this benefits the governing Conservative Party which has a bigger “war chest” than either the New Democrats or the Liberals. And the Conservatives, who have so far run a lack lustre campaign, are expected to turn up the heat in the final days of the campaign with a massive advertising drive, hoping by then the opposition parties will have run out of funds.

Although both Canada and the United Kingdom have an upper house (the Senate in Canada and the House of Lords in the UK), neither of them have elections for the upper chamber In Canada, members of the Senate are appointed for life (up to the age of 75, while in Britain the House of Lords is a mix of appointed members (life peers), hereditary peers, Anglican bishops and archbishops and High Court judges).

When the Canadian election is over on October 19, Americans will be in the midst of the primary campaigns (something almost unfathomable to Canadians and Britons), leading up to the general elections next year which could well end up with a government (administration) being won by one party while one or both of the two chambers (the House of Representatives and Senate) may be controlled by another … a system equally incomprehensible to the Canucks and Brits.

Ironically, the leader of the world’s most powerful nation has less power over domestic and some foreign legislation than does a prime minister of Canada or Britain. The prime ministers of these two countries generally head the political party with the most seats in the House of Commons and rebellious members of the majority party are often kicked out of the governing party by the PM. So, although not unheard of, few members of parliament rebel against the leadership for fear of being expelled from the party and losing many perks that go to governing party members.

Howard Williams has retired after 47 years in journalism, covering mainly politics and economics, in Brussels, New York and Washington for media in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada and the United States, and finally in Ottawa where he was the first English-language staff correspondent for Canada with Agence France-Presse.