Nicaragua Canal: Hurry up and learn Chinese
The delivery of a 100 year concession award for an Inter-oceanic Canal to a company without the capital or experience to carry out a project of this magnitude could be the result of a brilliant long-term operation by the Chinese government.
Jorge Cobas, writing in CentralAmericanData says:
As a commercial project, the Inter-Oceanic Canal in Nicaragua is economically unfeasible, in particular because the uncertainty over the return on investment to be made is so large. But for a country destined to be a world leader, as is China, for whom finance of $40 billion is no small thing, possession of a dominion over a waterway in the backyard of its greatest commercial competitor makes this investment a bargain.
President Obama conducted a routine visit to Central America in his second presidential term, and the most important thing he left behind was stories about the menus at the formal dinners. In contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping left hundreds of millions of dollars in loans for projects, which are, of course, well tied to the convenience of Chinese companies.
Xi Jinping did not visit Nicaragua. However, it could become the most important country for China on the American continent, in this century and the next.
Nicaragua is, under its current institutional conditions, with a Sandinista government which rules with the factual and dubiously democratic style of leftist Latin American governments – often going above the heads of opposing minorities – the Central American country where it is possible to develop this brilliant geopolitical Chinese operation.
Clearly, franchising the Inter-oceanic Canal directly to the Chinese state would have been much resisted and even unfeasible in political terms, both inside and outside of Nicaragua. As we have seen, the government of President Ortega found no obstacle to giving ownership of this concession to a nearly non-existent company. However, given the style of Chinese developmental policy, it is highly unlikely that the company will not be dependent on a government that has a clear need to ensure mastery of global sea routes, not only in terms of trade but also of military strategy.
It is clear that the construction of the Inter-oceanic Canal – if realized – would revolutionize and boost the economy of Nicaragua, to the well deserved benefit of its inhabitants, but it could also convert the country – and region – into a focus for geopolitical tensions, with unpredictable consequences.
What is absolutely certain is that we should hurry up and learn Chinese …