When polls beg to differ – presidential race a tie – or is it?

CRYSTAL BALL gazers and  TV talking heads got much grist for the mill, and political party activists got uppers and downers on  April 1, when Panama’s leading broadsheets published widely differing polls on how the candidates are faring in the race for the Presidential palace.

PRD campaigners who opened La Estrella over their morning coffee, would have got an extra lift with the news that their candidate, Juan Carlos Navarro, was now tied with Jose Domingo Arias. “The race for the Presidency of the Republic begins to change course. The candidate of the opposition Democratic Revolutionary Party, Juan Carlos Navarro, is tied with the ruling party candidate José Domingo Arias” said the publication, and it wasn't an April Fools Day  joke.

An Ipsos face to face poll conducted March 26 -29 put the two candidates tied at 32% .
The measurements were obtained in face to face interviews in households from 26 to 29 March in urban and rural areas (including Ngobe -Bugle, Guna Yala districts and the province of Darien) 1,500 were interviewed of which 1,454 said they will go to vote.
the government candidate stands fell one percentage point while his closest rival , Navarro climbed a point.
Meanwhile La Prensa published the results of a Quantix Panama , SA, which would prove a downer for PRD campaigners and bring a smile to the faces of those on the CD bandwagon – a rare achievement for a paper hated by the ruling party.
The Quantix poll , which was taken between March 27 and 30 from 2,932 people, and has a margin of error of + / – 1.81 points.
It puts Arias ahead with 39.1 % over Navarro with 32,1% and says; La Prensa “the Lead of seven points is considerable. In addition, the PRD has stagnated in the last month ( down from 32.2 % to 32.1 %) , perhaps because , seeing the good results he obtained in the previous measurement , strategists of Democratic Change decided to put him in the crosshairs of their fierce offensive
That was reflected on the same day on the front page of Panama America, controlled by President Ricardo Martinelli, which carried a front page story claiming that the PRD campaign was narco financed-shades of unproven allegations in the last campaign when stories were circulated that the PRD got $6 million from pyramid fraudster David Murcia. Subsequently he was found to have donated a healthy sum to the CD.
The only point the two polling companies agree on is that Juan Carlos Varela is trailing in third place.
La Prensa lists him with 25.2% and La Estrella at 26%.
Through it all the PRD claims confidence in victory because, says campaign manager Avidel Villareal they are the ' only political party capable of dealing with the structure and resources of the ruling party' which has been attacked by observers for using government funds and for the “interference” of the president in the campaign
Villareal says he PRD is the only party to come to the election with a comprehensive electoral offer and a candidate in each electoral jurisdiction. He says the group will have a presence at all tables nationwide.
CD campaign manager, José Muñoz, reports that their presidential candidate will be on the move across thecountry to find the vote and achieve victory in the elections.
The deputy also claims that the CD election manifesto will be taken house to house and presented to most Panamanians.

The alliance ' ' People First ‘, formed by the Panamenistsa and Popular parties, has not lost hope, reports La Estrella. Alcibiades Vásquez , leader of the group, said that Juan Carlos Varela’s proposals