Britain’s Conservative Party, led by Boris Johnson, would not win a parliamentary majority if 30% of British voters opposed to "Brexit" voted tactically12 to prevent the United Kingdom from leaving. European Union. in the December 12elections says an exhaustive analysis presented in London by the “Best for Britain” group, on Wednesday October 30.
The study, in which 46,000 citizens participated was released a day after the House of Commons supported the snap election sought by the prime minister, who starts with a lead in opinion polls.
Johnson wants to recover the parliamentary majority to ratify the agreement to leave the EU the country that was agreed with the European bloc. "The mission of Best for Britain is to curb the 'Brexit' by all democratic means," said Naomi Smith, CEO of the organization, which has enabled online a portal - getvoting.org- that provides advice to use the "useful" vote.
According to the analysis, if the citizens of this country do not vote in these elections in a tactical way, but moved by their political ideologies, the conservatives would win 364 seats, the Labour Party would get 189, the Liberal Democrats would have 23, Plaid Cymru would take three and the Greens one, which would result in a Tory majority (of 44 seats).
But if the electorate favorable to remaining in the EU uses its vote tactically, this scenario would change. according to the survey,
The predictions of the organization suggest that if 30% of voters in favor of remaining in the bloc face the elections tactically and position themselves in favor of groups that favor permanence, the elections would turn around - contradicting the polls - and deprive Johnson of a majority.
In the hypothetical scenario, Best for Britain believes that the Tories would win 309 seats, the Labour Party, 233, the Liberal Democrats, 34, Plaid Cymru would take four seats and the
Greens would win one. All this would lead to a majority favorable to the "Remain" cause (propermanence).
Smith said that "there is a great appetite in the country for using tactical voting" and that "there are barely 20% of people who are already so committed to how they are going to vote that they could not be persuaded to vote tactically."
The study was carried out by the Focaldata survey agency, which used a technique known as MRP, which in the past has provided sharp opinion predictions, such as the victory of President Donald Trump.